Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training around mid February. As the season draws closer fans are wondering what the projected St. Louis Cardinals 2021 starting rotation is. This team finished ninth in ERA a season ago and look to be on the same track.
1: Jack Flaherty is without a doubt the Cardinals ace heading into the season and is competing with Luis Castillo of the Cincinnati Reds for the best pitcher in the division. 2020 was not Flahertys best but some of that can be due to the shortened season. He made only nine starts compared to 33 and 28 the previous two seasons, there is less room for error when you only play about a 1/3rd of a normal season. I believe fans should be looking forward to the Cardinals 2021 season and Flaherty is a big reason.
2: Adam Wainwright just re-signed to the Cardinals for a one year eight million dollar contract. This comes after he was the best pitcher on the Cardinals staff a season ago. He pitched the most innings at 65.2, had the highest WAR, and led in wins. Most fans are excited to have him back, and we hope that he continues his 2020 form and doesn't return to the Wainwright from 2016-2019, where his ERA stayed over 4.19 as he dealt with injuries.
3: Kwang-hyun Kim had an impressive
2020, his first year in MLB. He, however, only had 5.54 K/9 compared to the 7.67 K/9 he averaged while playing 12 seasons with the SK Wyverns of KBO. His ERA of 1.62 showed he was excellent at not allowing runs to score. Kim is a similar pitcher to Dakota Hudson in that he gets batters to hit groundballs more than 50% of the time. This is a huge advantage for a pitcher because it means allowing fewer homeruns, and more double play balls. He only had three home runs against him through 39 innings in 2020. I am expecting Kim to have another great season but won't be surprised if his ERA rises some, but stays above league average.
4: Miles Mikolas is coming back from a forearm injury that required surgery forcing him to miss all of the 2020 season. In 2019 he went 9-14 with an ERA of 4.16 through 184 innings pitched. 2018 was much better for Mikolas, he went 18-4 with an ERA of 2.83 through 200.2 innings. The home runs were a big issue in 2019 where he allowed 27 compared to 16 in 2018. The home runs are related to the amount of hard hit balls, he allowed 21 more hard hit balls in 2019 than 2018 even though he threw fewer pitches in total. If Mikolas can return to 2018 form and keep the home runs to a minimum he will be a key piece in the rotation.
5: Daniel Ponce de Leon is my choice to be the Cardinals fifth starter. This would be occupied by Dakota Hudson if he was healthy but Hudson is set to miss the whole 2021 season. Ponce de Leon will have plenty of competition throughout spring training and the regular season. He made eight starts last season and another eight in 2019. He posted the highest strikeout percentage of the starting rotation but did also have plenty of walks and home runs. Ponce de Leon has had control problems since first being called up in 2018, but the home runs are new. His HR/9 was 2.2 in 2020, 1.11 in 2019, and 0.55 in 2018. Hopefully this trend settles down and he can limit the home runs. If he is unable to do so he might be relegated to the bullpen.
Other options:
Austin Gomber finished in the top four percent of MLB pitchers for barrel percentage in 2020. This means he was really good at limiting hard contact. Gomber could be the top option if the rotation needs a replacement either due to injury or performance.
*It has been reported that Gomber could be a part of the trade package sent to the Colorado Rockies for star third baseman Nolan Arenado, per Ken Rosenthal.*
Carlos Martinez is a two time all star for the Cardinals and he very well could return to being that player. He didn't start any games in 2019 and the five games he started in 2020 didn't look very good. If he comes back healthy and performs he could easily beat out Ponce de Leon.
Johan Oviedo was an interesting callup for the Cardinals in 2020 as it seemed it was a little early for the prospect. He showed some signs of being a really good pitcher but also struggled at times in his first season of MLB. He is about to turn 23 at the start of the regular season and will probably begin 2021 in triple a.
Alex Reyes has been the Cardinals most intriguing prospect for years because of his immense talent and struggle to earn playing time due to injuries. In 2020 he cemented himself as an MLB player for good and will likely start in the bullpen for 2021. At this point it seems like his career path might be that of a high end reliever if he can stay healthy, although he is still an option to start games if needed.
John Gant has been a solid pitcher for the Cardinals since 2017 as a starter and reliever. It appears the Cardinals prefer him in the bullpen as of now but if the starting rotation is under performing I could see Gant turn into a starter for this team.
This is my projected 2021 starting rotation for the St. Louis Cardinals. As we get to spring training I do expect some things to change either by performance or health. Next Friday (Feb 5th) I will be writing an article on the five players listed above as 'other options'.
Feel free to leave a comment or suggestion down below or reach out to me on social media as I am always down for a conversation about baseball or any sport for that matter.
All stats from Fangraphs, and Baseball Savant.
Featured Image courtesy of Imagn
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