The pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report for the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday February 17. Fans are wanting to know what the projected Royals 2021 starting rotation is as the season inches closer every day.
I believe the Royals know who will be in their rotation already it's just a matter of placing them in order.
1: Brad Keller was the opening day starter for the Royals in 2019, but ceded to Danny Duffy in 2020 after he tested positive for Covid-19. When Keller returned he was the best pitcher in their starting rotation that finished 12th in MLB for ERA. I would also say 2020 was Keller's best season yet. He finished 5-3, an extremely impressive ERA of 2.47, held opposing batters to an average of .199, lowered his walk rate, and kept his ground ball rate above 50%. Heading into his age 25/26 season I am expecting Keller to get closer to the 200 innings pitched mark, his current high is 165.1 from 2019.
2: Brady Singer could be placed as the ace here by some but he still has more to prove before being given that role. Singer was one of the best pitchers in minor league baseball in 2019 and made his MLB debut with the Royals in 2020. He finished 2020 4-5, with a 4.06 ERA in 12 games. He pitched his best during the last 1/3 of those games when he almost achieved a no-hitter against the Cleveland Indians and then allowed three or fewer hits in each of the next three games. In a normal 162 game season I believe Singer could've been even better. However, Singer like every young pitcher comes with concerns. He excelled at limiting barrel on balls, but still allowed plenty of hard contact. If opposing batters continue making hard contact and start to get the barrel on the ball Singer will see his homeruns rise. The next concern for me is the fact that he is a three pitch pitcher. Currently he throws a sinker (57.4%), a slider (37.4%), and a changeup (4.7%). Fangraphs also lists that he threw a fourseam fastball but only .5% of the time. If Singer develops a reliable fourth pitch that can keep the batters guessing, then he will likely perform better.
3) Danny Duffy has spent all 10 of his seasons playing for the Royals. He is set to become a free agent at the end of 2021 after signing a five year $65 million dollar contract in 2016. He has underwhelmed since signing that deal as that has been his only season with double digit wins and more than 155 innings pitched. He isn't very good but I do feel the Royals front office is comfortable with him in the middle of the rotation, unlike a season ago when he was their ace and opening day starter. Duffy could fall lower in the rotation but as a veteran it is important to slot him between the younger pitchers so opposing teams aren't getting used to one style. This veteran role could also be given to Mike Minor whom the Royals signed this offseason. One last thought on Duffy is the possibility of him being traded. The Royals aren't projected to be very good and might move Duffy to add more prospects to an already impressive farm system.
4: Kris Bubic, like Singer, is a young pitcher with only three pitches. An interesting point is that his best pitch is the curveball, but he threw that less than his other pitches. At this point in time I don't think the main concern for Bubic is to add another pitch but instead to work on his command of the pitches he currently uses( fastball, changeup, curveball.) He struggled to throw first pitch strikes in 2020 and also had a hard time getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. A first pitch strike is important because it puts the pitcher in control and allows for more room to work. If Bubic can increase the first pitch strikes, then he will get batters to swing outside the zone more often. This all affects his walk rate which was 9.9% in 2020 and also needs to improve before being considered a solid MLB pitcher.
5: Mike Minor is back in a Royals uniform after signing a two year $18 million dollar deal this offseason. He first played in Kansas City for the 2017 season as a reliever, his only season he did not start a single game. I was a huge fan of Minor when he played for the Texas Rangers from 2018-2019. He had 157 innings pitched in 2018 and 208.1 in 2019 with a winning record in both seasons. This signing made perfect sense for the Royals for a couple reasons. The first being he is an innings eater. Meaning he is able to pitch deep into games consistently, thus allowing the relievers to be rested and ready for when the young starters play. The other reason is simply just having a veteran in the rotation could give the young players some ideas on how to improve their game. Minor, in my own opinion, is better than Duffy and could be switched out with him but I think it's more likely the Royals put the newcomer at the bottom. Minor could also move ahead of Bubic, but that would place Bubic in front of Keller and Singer and I mentioned earlier it would be wise to split the young arms up and not allow the three of them to pitch back to back to back.
Other Options:
1: Jackson Kowar is the number four prospect in the Royals system. He throws right handed, and has a changeup graded to be a 70 on the 20-80 scale. Kowar is likely to start the regular season at Triple-A and I think he gets the first opportunity of these options. I placed him over Daniel Lynch due to him having played in Double-A whereas Lynch has only played in high-A.
2: Daniel Lynch is the Royals number two prospect. He is a tall lefty that features a dominant fastball that sits around 97 MPH. He is going to be 24 this season and I think should be second in line for a chance to start in the big leagues if one rises. He has yet to pitch above high-A, however, so it may be more likely one of these other options gets the call.
3: Jakob Junis has been a Royals starter the last four seasons and Royals fans should be happy that time has ended. His ERA has stayed above 4 and jumped over 5 in 2019 and 6 in 2020. Junis is a better fit for the bullpen but if an injury occurs he is one of the only options they have for depth with MLB service time.
4: Ervin Santana signed a minor league deal with the Royals this offseason. If he does enough at spring training to remain in the organization he is an option to start games, but this doesn't seem too likely to me. If the Royals can move Duffy they may look at Santana as a fill in.
5: Carlos Hernandez is the Royals number 15 prospect and already has MLB experience after playing five games for the Royals in 2020, three of which he started. Hernandez is likely to start in the minor leagues this season but should be watched carefully as I can see him being called up to help the bullpen or rotation.
This is my projected 2021 starting rotation for the Kansas City Royals. As we get to spring training and the regular season I do expect some things to change either by performance or health. Their rotation is filled with youth and fans should be excited about the future if these young guys keep making improvements. For Keller its increasing his innings pitched. Singer needs to add another quality pitch to his arsenal. Bubic has a lot of work to do on his control and command of his current pitches. If these three fail to improve, then thee Royals might not wait too long to give the reins over to the top prospects still in the farm system.
Feel free to leave a comment or suggestion down below or reach out to me on social media as I am always available for a conversation about baseball or any sport for that matter.
All stats from Fangraphs.
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