Last week I released my St. Louis Cardinals projected 2021 starting rotation along with five additional options that could be replacements or make a spot start when needed. This week we're taking a bigger look at what the Cardinals have for 2021 starting rotation depth.
The projected starting rotation for 2021 is 1: Jack Flaherty
2: Adam Wainwright
3: Kwang-hyun Kim
4: Miles Mikolas
5: Daniel Ponce de Leon
Other options 1: Carlos Martinez
2: Alex Reyes
3: Johan Oviedo
4: John Gant
5: Matthew Liberatore
The other options last week included Austin Gomber who was traded, with four other prospects, to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for star third baseman Nolan Arenado.
In his place now is the Cardinals number two prospect Matthew Liberatore.
Carlos Martinez is on track to begin spring training healthy after he made a statement to MLB.com saying he was "100 percent". Martinez has spent 2021 playing winter ball in the Dominican League and the Caribbean Series in Mexico. MLB.com has reported that he played well this winter as a starter. He has a really good shot of starting in the rotation come spring training and the regular season if he continues his current performance.
In October of last season, I ranked Martinez as the fifth best Cardinal pitcher of the last 25 years due to his two All-Star Game appearances and high amount of strikeouts. I believe the Cardinals can and should win the National League Central in 2021 and Carlos Martinez can be a huge part of their success as a starter if he can stay healthy and perform like he did from 2015-2017. While he might start 2021 in the bullpen I believe there is about an 80% chance he starts at least five games for the Cardinals.
Alex Reyes is likely to end up in the bullpen during the regular season. He has the talent to become a regular starter for a good team but the Cardinals are loaded with depth even after trading away Gomber. Reyes was a top prospect since being signed in 2012 and appeared as the Cardinals number four prospect in 2014 over Jack Flaherty and now Arizona Diamondback Luke Weaver. From 2015-2018 he was the Cardinals number one prospect and ranked in the top 40 prospects in all of MLB and topped out at number seven. He made his MLB debut in August 2016 as a reliever, at first. He continued to play well in 2016 and eventually became a starting pitcher even making five starts in the 2016 postseason. Unfortunately, Reyes had plenty of injuries that kept him off the field from 2017-2019.
2020 was much better for Reyes as he was able to pitch 19.2 innings, including one start. He had a 3.20 ERA, 27 strikeouts, 14 walks, went 2-1, and had one save and two holds. With these numbers mostly coming from the bullpen last season I would expect Manager Mike Shildt to keep Reyes in the bullpen but could still use him as a starter if he he needs someone to make multiple starts.
Last week I described Johan Oviedo as an interesting callup in 2020 because it seemed early for him. He was playing in rookie leagues and Single A from 2016-2018 and only played one season in Double A where he finished with an ERA of 5.65. His inexperience showed in 2020 as well when he went 0-3 through five starts and an ERA of 5.47. Oviedo is still a top 10 Cardinal prospect for 2021 and very well could see time in MLB this season. He has done well in the past with limiting base hits by creating a high percentage of ground balls, something he struggled to do in 2020 with a 39.5 GB%.
I do think Oviedo getting the callup last season makes it more likely the Cardinals go to him over fellow pitching prospects Liberatore and Zack Thompson this season if and when they need a pitcher.
John Gant has made 21 starts for the Cardinals in his career but none since 2018. He was serviceable in 2017 but really made a solid impression in 2018 when he went 7-6 with a 3.47 ERA. The case against Gant being in the starting rotation is the fact that he's been better while in the bullpen. 2019 he pitched an 11-1 record with three saves, and an ERA at 3.66. In 2020 he excelled as one of the Cardinals best relief options. He had a 62.5 ground ball percentage, 2.40 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 4.20 BB/9, and didn't allow a single home run through 15 innings.
Gant should be seen as a key bullpen arm and depth for the starting rotation but if the Cardinals do end up needing to use him as a starter, fans shouldn't worry.
Matthew Liberatore is Baseball Americas number two prospect in the Cardinals organization behind Dylan Carlson and the number 46 out of every team. He was acquired in the trade that sent Randy Arozarena to the Tampa Bay Rays. Arozarena proceeded to have one of the best playoff performances of all time in 2020, while Liberatore practiced and worked out at the Cardinals alternate training site in Springfield Missouri. Fans should be patient, however. Liberatore has a plus curveball that could transition into all-star level, and an above average potential with his fastball, slider, and changeup. If Liberatore keeps improving his four pitches and command he can easily be a Cy Young caliber player down the line.
Fans should be excited to see how Liberatore comes out playing in spring training. I wouldn't expect him to make the majors right away and it's hard to imagine him playing in MLB at all in 2021, however, if Liberatore plays well in spring training and Triple A he will be pressing the Cardinals hand in a promotion.
These five pitchers all currently in the St. Louis Cardinals organization are the five best options for the starting rotation depth if the Cardinals need an extra starter either due to injury or performance. Carlos Martinez has the best chance of making the rotation from the start, and Johan Oviedo has the best chance of receiving a promotion from the minors.
Feel free to leave a comment or suggestion down below or reach out to me on social media as I am always available for a conversation about baseball or any sport for that matter.
Featured image courtesy of Call to the Pen
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